Apple’s mobile crossover between the iPhone and MacBook, the iPad, is set to hit store shelves next month, with a WiFi-only version available April 3 and the WiFi + 3G version available in late April. The company’s answer to a slew of netbooks being launched by PC makers in 2010 is generating a lot of attention (see iPad Buzz). But will it be the game changer the original iPhone was in 2007?

According to Ryan Flinn of Bloomberg News (March 19), one online oddsmaker isn’t convinced it will be. “The odds are stacked against Apple’s new iPad reaching sales of 1 million as quickly as the iPhone, an online bookmaker said.”

Flinn wrote that the iPhone, released in June 2007, took 74 days to reach the 1 million units sold mark. Apple went on to sell more than 42 million iPhones. “The iPad has a 72 percent probability of taking longer than (74 days to reach 1 million sold), according to YouWager.com, which began taking bets on the topic this week.”

He quoted Brian Sanz of the Costa Rica-based Youwager.com in saying, “No matter what they put out on the market, there’s going to be large sales, but with this particular product, we don’t think it’s as practical as the iPhone.”

Some other details from Flinn’s article:

• Paddy Power, Ireland’s biggest oddsmaker, is listing 3-to-1 odds that iPad sales will surpass 6 million in 2010. On the other end, it had 8-to-1 odds that fewer than 1 million units will sell.
• The Wall Street Journal reported March 18 that Apple has received hundreds of thousands of iPad preorders.
• Angela McIntyre of Gartner Research predicts 4.2 million iPads will be sold in its first year.
• Flurry Inc., a company that tracks smartphone use, estimated this week that Google’s Nexus One (see Nexus One) sold about 135,000 units in its first 74 days. It also reports that the Motorola Droid  (see Motorola Droid) managed to hit the 1 million mark in that amount of time.

Wireless retailers should be paying close attention to demand for netbooks and tablet PCs, as foreshadowed by their prominence at 2010 tradeshows like the CES, the MWC in Barcelona and CTIA Wireless in Las Vegas (see Netbooks and Tablets: Expanding Markets for Wireless Retailers).

Apple Alternatives?

Regardless of how popular the iPad becomes, not every wireless retailer will be able to carry it.

Thankfully, there are options available for these retailers. “For each item on the Apple roster, there’s a non-Apple alternative that comes close, and, in some cases, even performs better and costs less,” wrote Tim Gideon of PC Mag (March 19) - Click here to access detailed reviews.

• iPhone alternatives: Google Nexus One, Samsung Mythic SGH-a897
• iPod Touch alternatives: Sony X Series Walkman, Microsoft Zune HD
• iPod Nano alternatives: Samsung Q2, Coby MP705

PC Mag does not yet have suggestions for iPad alternatives, but as mentioned earlier, the 2010 CES introduced plenty of worthy competitors (see Tablet PCs: The Darling of 2010 CES):

• HP Multitouch Tablet (also called the HP Slate)
• Lenovo Ideapad U1 Hybrid Notebook/Tablet
• Sony Dash Mobile Internet Device
• Notion Ink Adam Smartpad
• Archos 9 PC Tablet
• Dell Tablet (concept)

- newsletter@iQmetrix.com

* To read more about the Apple iPad, Netbooks and Tablet PCs, check out the following articles from iQmetrix News & Views:

Everyone's Talking About Apple's New iPad

Netbooks and Tablets: Expanding Markets for Wireless Retailers 

Tablet PCs: The Darling of 2010 CES